For years, predictions about the decline of middle management have resurfaced every time a new technology comes along. The logic is familiar: AI is automating coordination, teams are becoming self-directed, and hierarchies are thinning. In that view, the traditional manager passing information up and instructions down looks unnecessary.
That view misses the point. The title may change. The work will not.
As organisations shift from fixed roles to fluid teams and continuous learning, the middle layer becomes more important, not less. But its value looks very different. Instead of control, it is about sense-making. Instead of task oversight, it is about human connection, interpretation and alignment. Instead of sitting in a fixed layer, it becomes a capability that moves across the system.
This raises a new question: if the work changes, how should people in these roles be paid?
The role becomes distributed
In future organisations, “middle management” won’t be a rung on a ladder. It becomes a distributed function. Some people will do this work full-time. Others will rotate into it depending on the project. Some will guide teams through complexity. Others will act as translators between strategy, technology and behaviour.
Their influence will come from capability and trust rather than position. They will be network nodes rather than layer managers.
Traditional structures don’t have a place for this. Org charts assume stable hierarchy, not moving roles. That forces a rethink of how accountability, development and reward work when the role is not anchored in job title.
Measuring value when control disappears
Traditional models relied on proxies: the size of a team, the size of a budget, the length of experience, the number of processes overseen. But none of these indicators apply when the role becomes relational and interpretive.
If these roles are judged by old standards, they will be undervalued.
New measures will need to capture contribution in areas such as:
- How well teams perform without constant direction
- How quickly insight moves across the organisation
- How effectively conflict is resolved before it escalates
- How fast new tools and methods are adopted
- How quickly people gain clarity in complex environments
This work is long-range. It does not show up in monthly dashboards. But it determines whether organisations can adapt at speed.
Reward systems will need to recognise this long-term value even when the impact is indirect.
Who develops this talent?
In hierarchical models, middle managers received development through position. They were selected, trained and supported through formal structures. In distributed models, that safety net would disappear.
If middle managers of the future are expected to be coaches, connectors and interpreters, these capabilities cannot be left to chance. Organisations will need:
- A clear development path for relational and coaching skills
- Regular practice built into day-to-day work
- Peer support networks rather than relying only on senior leaders
- Consistent expectations of what “good” looks like
Without this, the role will simply become an invisible middle: essential work carried by people with no formal recognition or reward.
The Reward challenge
This is where the real gap appears. Most reward systems today are built around:
- fixed roles
- predictable ladders
- authority and headcount
- ownership of budgets or processes
Future middle managers may have none of these. Their value will sit in culture, behaviour, learning and influence. These are harder to measure and often sit across teams rather than inside one function.
So how do you pay people whose work is vital but not easily counted?
Four models are likely to emerge.
- Capability-based pay
Base pay linked to what someone can do, not what they control.
People who excel at coaching, sense-making, integration and interpretation will be valued highly. These capabilities will become as recognisable and scarce as technical expertise (Skill-Based Pay).
- Contribution-based incentives
Not bonuses based on team output, but on outcomes across the system. This could include:
- improved collaboration between functions
- smoother handoffs across workflows
- faster uptake of new tech
- lower friction in decision-making
This shifts reward from “Did your team hit the numbers?” to “Did the organisation work better because of you?”
- Long-term signals
Career paths resembling technical tracks: fewer large jumps, more steady progression linked to deeper capability.
This approach rewards the slow compounding value of people who carry context, build trust and strengthen organisational learning.
- Reputation-based progression
In fluid systems, influence becomes visible through feedback loops. People who improve team clarity, reduce conflict or speed up adaptation will be recognised through network reputation. Reward will track this influence rather than formal authority.
Where AI fits in
AI removes much of the administrative burden that once defined line management: reporting, tracking, scheduling, knowledge capture, summarisation. But it also increases the need for human judgment.
Teams operating with constant digital input need someone who can add context, interpret signals and translate complexity into action.
AI will strengthen these roles, not replace them. The risk comes if organisations treat AI as a substitute for human authority in situations that rely on trust. AI can prompt, flag risks and automate workflows, but it cannot mediate conflict or build confidence during uncertainty.
The most effective organisations will pair AI with human connectors rather than replace one with the other.
If organisations refuse to shift
Some companies will hold onto traditional hierarchies and positional management. In the short term, nothing will break. But as more organisations adopt fluid, networked models, gaps in talent, motivation and performance will widen.
People capable of working in distributed, high-autonomy systems will gravitate toward organisations that reward capability, not position. Those that cling to old models will lose speed, adaptability and learning capacity.
Over time, they will struggle to attract the people needed to operate in networked environments.
The next challenge: matching reward to reality
The work of middle management is not disappearing. It is being rewritten.
The organisations that succeed will redesign reward systems around the actual value these roles provide: connection, learning, clarity, alignment and influence. These are not soft skills. They are stability and speed in human systems.
If organisations want people who can coach, connect, interpret and build trust especially in environments shaped by AI they need to value that work formally.
Reward cannot stay frozen in a world of fixed roles and authority structures that no longer exist. The future will not be about paying for position. It will be about paying for capability and contribution across the network.
The organisations that get this right will move faster, adapt better and retain the people who make complexity understandable. The title may fade. The value won’t.