In April 2023, TR2050 held its first panel discussion at the Swiss Re Centre for Global Dialogue in Zurich. Three years later, the panel reconvened in the same room to assess what had actually changed.
Technology moved faster than anyone expected
The single clearest shift identified by the panel was the speed of AI development and its reach into organisations. In 2023, technology was discussed as an enabler, something that could, in time, help reward functions manage complexity. By 2026, the conversation had moved well beyond that.
“What we underestimated is the speed of the technology development which we’ve seen over the last couple of years, and in particular, the impact AI has on industries, on companies, on functions, on HR, and also on rewards.” – Olaf Lang, Global Head of Reward, Swiss Re
Within some organisations, the expectation from the business was that every unit should be employing AI in its processes to create efficiency gains. Three years earlier, that expectation simply wasn’t there.
The gig economy didn’t arrive as expected
One of the more notable areas of consensus in 2023 was that the gig workforce would grow significantly, and that organisations would need to rapidly redesign reward frameworks to accommodate a much more fragmented workforce. That prediction did not materialise in the way the panel had anticipated.
“The element where we focused significantly, if I recall correctly, three years ago was around gigs, and the change also of the composition of our workforce at that stage, and I think to be fair, up to now we’ve not had that progress that I think all of us anticipated three years ago.” – Marc Glaeser, Global HRBP Total & Exec Rewards, Lonza
Olaf Lang echoed this; organisations had expected gig workers to represent a significantly higher proportion of their workforce by now. The reality, across most large multinationals represented at the panel, was that this simply had not happened.
Skills-based pay: still a slow burn
Marc Glaeser noted that there had been real progress in how organisations think about skills, specifically around understanding which skills they have, which they need, and how quickly those skills are becoming obsolete.
“The half life of skills is increasing or decreasing in the sense that skills are becoming much faster obsolete. There is a need for organisations that are skill-based to understand how that is transpiring within their organisation.” – Marc Glaeser
Skills-based pay featured heavily in the 2023 discussion, with optimism that the concept would gain real traction. Three years on, the picture is more complicated.
The fundamental tension identified by the panel is not new, it has been present for decades. How do you link pay to skills without creating a system so complex that neither managers nor employees can understand it?
“Whenever I talk to senior executives, their clear focus is keep it simple, so that people understand our programmes, and that they can drive behaviour. Everything which adds complexity to the system, we try to avoid, and skills-based pay is one of those topics… I haven’t seen much traction in the last 20 odd years.” – Olaf Lang
What has shifted, however, is the framing. Uwe Kilian offered a perspective that several panel members found resonant: the question is no longer about compensating for a specific skill, but about identifying and rewarding change adaptability as a capability in itself.
“Where we used to think about compensating for a specific skill, I don’t think that companies are thinking that way anymore. Skills are changing so fast that we are starting to think about how do we deal with change adaptability, and that in itself is the skill that companies are looking for and compensating for, potentially.” – Uwe Kilian, VP Compensation & Benefits and Labour Relations, Essity
Alex Kaufmann, Global Head of Reward at Medartis, noted that smaller organisations now have a faster route into the conversation than before, through AI: “Companies who are smaller, maybe not able to have evolved that thinking as quickly as others, are able to catch up through the use of technology and close the gap.”
Personalisation receded, and that may be the right outcome
In 2023, personalisation was one of the defining themes of the discussion. The ambition was to move towards reward frameworks that could flex around individuals – different working patterns, different benefit choices, different career stages. By 2026, the panel’s assessment was more measured.
“I feel like that is one theme that has not materialised, maybe to the extent it was discussed back then. The background to it is probably around ease and also relevance; how far do you take personalisation? How do you make it actually sustainable, manageable within an organisation?” – Raluca Ciliacu-Hetzer, VP Global Total Rewards, Barry Callebaut Group
Olaf Lang observed that the pendulum had swung back; in his organisation and others, it was back to office the majority of the time, and the growth in gig workers that had been expected had not materialised. The push towards personalisation, he noted, was not as prominent a topic as it had been three, four, or five years ago, with organisations moving more towards simplification and standardisation to keep things manageable.
Raluca Ciliacu-Hetzer added a nuance worth noting: what has shifted is not the desire for flexibility entirely, but the form it takes. Employees want explainability and clarity, and some degree of choice, but not individualisation of everything. The distinction between personalisation and segmentation, designing for identifiable groups rather than for individuals, emerged as a more workable direction for most large organisations.